Like a GAT (Government Aptitude Test), there should be some criteria set to be an economic forecaster other than writing a mediocre and forgettable thesis thirty years ago. In this instance 90% of economists (!) claim there will be a recovery in 2009.
My fearless prediction is that the recession will not end in 2009 or 2010. It just won’t. I predict that this fall they will relentlessly spin as it being a recovery, but if you look for the facts, it won’t be.
You can hold me to that.